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Economic Commentary

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Economic Commentary from Global View Investment Advisors.

Quarterly Newsletter to the Public: Q2 2014

“People are asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question… The right question is:  Where is the outlook the most miserable.’”  Legendary global investor John Templeton Executive Summary At the Morningstar conference in Chicago in June, some of the industry’s best and brightest were out sharing…

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public- Q1 2014

April 22, 2014 “We’re generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.’”  Daniel Kahneman, Nobel winning Psychologist and recent author of Thinking Fast and Slow Executive Summary The economic reality is that most of the world is mired in a New Normal where economic growth is no longer…

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Does Fund Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance?

A recent article, “Drawing the Line of Asset Bloat” by Russel Kinnel published in Morningstar magazine examined the effect of swelling asset size on mutual fund performance. Kinnel highlights several anecdotal examples of how growing size of a mutual can significantly impair the fund’s future returns including the infamous Fidelity…

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Manager Due Diligence Trip

Manager Due Diligence Trip                                                                    January 8, 2014                                                              Executive Summary Following my trip to the West Coast after Ironman Arizona in November, I took the opportunity to visit with three prominent fund managers in order to gain insight into their investment process and current view of the world.  As a fee-only…

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How the Economic Machine Works

Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates This 30 minute video explains, in a very clear and easy to understand way, how the economy responds to the short term debt cycle, the long term debt cycle and productivity growth.   Dalio believes we are currently in an economic period known as a…

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Manager Update:Charles de Vaulx on Cautious Positioning

“We have never been as cautiously positioned as we are today.” Charles de Vaulx, Portfolio Manager, IVA Funds In a recent interview with Advisor Perspectives, Charles de Vaulx, portfolio manager with International Value Advisors (IVA), told investors what IVA is doing to preserve capital in a tough investment environment.  The…

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Bonds vs. Stocks – What Happens Next

Since the US Federal Reserve has signaled an exit strategy, “taper” or reduce purchases, both “safe” bonds (US treasuries) and risky assets (stocks and high yield bonds), have been correcting in price. The chart below shows two periods in the last 6 years when treasury bond and stock prices have been…

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