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Economic Commentary

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Economic Commentary from Global View Investment Advisors.


How the Economic Machine Works

Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates This 30 minute video explains, in a very clear and easy to understand way, how the economy responds to the short term debt cycle, the long term debt cycle and productivity growth.   Dalio believes we are currently in an economic period known as a…

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Manager Update:Charles de Vaulx on Cautious Positioning

“We have never been as cautiously positioned as we are today.” Charles de Vaulx, Portfolio Manager, IVA Funds In a recent interview with Advisor Perspectives, Charles de Vaulx, portfolio manager with International Value Advisors (IVA), told investors what IVA is doing to preserve capital in a tough investment environment.  The…

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Bonds vs. Stocks – What Happens Next

Since the US Federal Reserve has signaled an exit strategy, “taper” or reduce purchases, both “safe” bonds (US treasuries) and risky assets (stocks and high yield bonds), have been correcting in price. The chart below shows two periods in the last 6 years when treasury bond and stock prices have been…

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

GDP reported Friday failed to meet expectations.  More importantly, GDP growth, year on year, is at a level never previously experienced outside recession.  This data supports ECRI’s stance that the US is currently in a mild recession that began about midyear 2012. Click here to read the complete article.

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Quarterly Newsletter to Public Q1 2013

While we continue to believe much of the developed world is currently in a mild recession there is reason to believe that near-term deflationary forces may have been reduced, at least in the short-term. Nonetheless, the preponderance of other risks and current valuations do not make this a time to take increased risk.

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Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks for Free

Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks for Free

The following is the latest Investment Outlook from Bill Gross, titled “Money for Nothin’, Writing Checks for Free”.  The commentary discusses the extraordinary actions that the Federal Reserve is now engaged, as well as other major Central Banks. From my perspective, the long story-short is that this economic activity is…

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