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Posts Tagged "Federal Reserve"

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q4 2014

Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q4 2014 January 30, 2015 “The More I Sweat in Peace, the Less I bleed in War.” Norman Schwartzkopf (re-quoted from Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit, Indian Diplomat) Executive Summary In order to avoid fatal mistakes, prolonged periods of patience may be required, i.e. we have to…

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q3 2014

“Life’s bills don’t always come at market tops.” Charles deVaulx, International Value Advisors (former co-manager with Jean Marie Eveillard at First Eagle Global) Executive Summary The key thesis of our investment strategy is that a “go anywhere” approach of buying cheap high quality securities is the recipe for investment success….

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public: Q2 2014

“People are asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question… The right question is:  Where is the outlook the most miserable.’”  Legendary global investor John Templeton Executive Summary At the Morningstar conference in Chicago in June, some of the industry’s best and brightest were out sharing…

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Quarterly Newsletter to Public Q2 2013

The view of many investment professionals we admire is that global central banks have created a “rigged market,” where stock prices have gone up despite a recessionary economy.  Since these unprecedented actions, asset prices have responded almost immediately when any directional change in policy has even been suggested. The Fed decision to “taper” bond purchases is its first suggestion of an exit strategy and has wide ranging implications for asset markets including substantially increased volatility.

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Bonds vs. Stocks – What Happens Next

Since the US Federal Reserve has signaled an exit strategy, “taper” or reduce purchases, both “safe” bonds (US treasuries) and risky assets (stocks and high yield bonds), have been correcting in price. The chart below shows two periods in the last 6 years when treasury bond and stock prices have been…

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Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks for Free

Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks for Free

The following is the latest Investment Outlook from Bill Gross, titled “Money for Nothin’, Writing Checks for Free”.  The commentary discusses the extraordinary actions that the Federal Reserve is now engaged, as well as other major Central Banks. From my perspective, the long story-short is that this economic activity is…

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Blind Faith

“Incompetence is the disease of idiots.  Overconfidence is the mistake of experts … Incompetence irritates me.  Overconfidence terrifies me.”  Malcolm Gladwell Steve Romick’s latest message suggests that continued easy monetary policy will not end well.  “Despite Mr. Bernanke’s poor batting average (at predicting the future), his confidence appears unshaken.”  We…

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