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Posts Tagged "GDP"

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2016 4th Quarter Newsletter

2016 4th Quarter Newsletter

“The Stock Market is Non-Partisan,”  Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group Executive Summary: The elections are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets. Investors who seek reasonable returns can always do so (and have always done so) by owning the debt and equity of firms that are reasonably cheap, have reasonably…

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q1 2015

Quarterly Newsletter Q1 2015 April 28, 2015 “In Math, we can sort of know that we’re wrong.  We can even sometimes know that we’re right … The main thing is where you set the bar between success and failure.  Some people will say 99 percent correct is failure because you…

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q4 2014

Quarterly Newsletter to the Public Q4 2014 January 30, 2015 “The More I Sweat in Peace, the Less I bleed in War.” Norman Schwartzkopf (re-quoted from Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit, Indian Diplomat) Executive Summary In order to avoid fatal mistakes, prolonged periods of patience may be required, i.e. we have to…

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Quarterly Newsletter to the Public- Q1 2014

April 22, 2014 “We’re generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.’”  Daniel Kahneman, Nobel winning Psychologist and recent author of Thinking Fast and Slow Executive Summary The economic reality is that most of the world is mired in a New Normal where economic growth is no longer…

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Manager Due Diligence Trip

Manager Due Diligence Trip                                                                    January 8, 2014                                                              Executive Summary Following my trip to the West Coast after Ironman Arizona in November, I took the opportunity to visit with three prominent fund managers in order to gain insight into their investment process and current view of the world.  As a fee-only…

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Quarterly Newsletter to Public Q2 2013

The view of many investment professionals we admire is that global central banks have created a “rigged market,” where stock prices have gone up despite a recessionary economy.  Since these unprecedented actions, asset prices have responded almost immediately when any directional change in policy has even been suggested. The Fed decision to “taper” bond purchases is its first suggestion of an exit strategy and has wide ranging implications for asset markets including substantially increased volatility.

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

GDP reported Friday failed to meet expectations.  More importantly, GDP growth, year on year, is at a level never previously experienced outside recession.  This data supports ECRI’s stance that the US is currently in a mild recession that began about midyear 2012. Click here to read the complete article.

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Quarterly Newsletter to Public Q1 2013

While we continue to believe much of the developed world is currently in a mild recession there is reason to believe that near-term deflationary forces may have been reduced, at least in the short-term. Nonetheless, the preponderance of other risks and current valuations do not make this a time to take increased risk.

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